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Summary by Gavin Gray 1 month ago
A very simple (but impractical) discrete model of subclonal evolution would include the following events:
* Division of a cell to create two cells:
* **Mutation** at a location in the genome of the new cells
* Cell death at a new timestep
* Cell survival at a new timestep
Because measurements of mutations are usually taken at one time point, this is taken to be at the end of a time series of these events, where a tiny of subset of cells are observed and a **genotype matrix** $A$ is produced, in which mutations and cells are arbitrarily indexed such that $A_{i,j} = 1$ if mutation $j$ exists in cell $i$. What this matrix allows us to see is the proportion of cells which *both have mutation $j$*.
Unfortunately, I don't get to observe $A$, in practice $A$ has been corrupted by IID binary noise to produce $A'$. This paper focuses on difference inference problems given $A'$, including *inferring $A$*, which is referred to as **`noise_elimination`**. The other problems involve inferring only properties of the matrix $A$, which are referred to as:
* **`noise_inference`**: predict whether matrix $A$ would satisfy the *three gametes rule*, which asks if a given genotype matrix *does not describe a branching phylogeny* by a cell has inherited mutations from two different cells (which is usually assumed to be impossible under the infinite sites assumption). This can be computed exactly from $A$.
* **Branching Inference**: it's possible that all mutations are inherited between the cells observed; in which case there are *no branching events*. The paper states that this can be computed by searching over permutations of the rows and columns of $A$. The problem is to predict from $A'$ if this is the case.
In both problems inferring properties of $A$, the authors use fully connected networks with two hidden layers on simulated datasets of matrices. For **`noise_elimination`**, computing $A$ given $A'$, the authors use a network developed for neural machine translation called a [pointer network][pointer]. They also find it necessary to map $A'$ to a matrix $A''$, turning every element in $A'$ to a fixed length row containing the location, mutation status and false positive/false negative rate.
Unfortunately, reported results on real datasets are reported only for branching inference and are limited by the restriction on input dimension. The inferred branching probability reportedly matches that reported in the literature.
[pointer]: https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.0473

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